National Hurricane Center Warns Floridians Not to Let Guard Down During 2026 Hurricane Season
Even though early projections suggest the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season may be less active than recent years, experts at the National Hurricane Center say Floridians shouldn’t let their guard down. During an interview on The Ryan Gorman Show, warning coordination meteorologist Robbie Berg explained that a developing El Niño pattern in the Pacific could help suppress storm activity across the Atlantic basin, but only to a point.
“El Niño means the waters in the Pacific Ocean get warmer than they should be,” Berg said. “That ends up causing more wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean and hurricanes don’t like wind shear.” While that could result in fewer named storms overall, Berg cautioned listeners that it only takes one storm in the right conditions to create a major disaster, pointing to Hurricane Andrew in 1992 as an example of a catastrophic hurricane during an El Niño year.
Berg also noted that while Atlantic water temperatures are not currently as extreme as in previous seasons, the Gulf of America and Caribbean remain warm enough to rapidly fuel storms. He warned that early-season tropical development is still possible, especially if cold fronts stall over warm Gulf waters in June. “I would just be concerned as we head into next month that we'd be watching the Gulf for potential development,” Berg explained.
The National Hurricane Center is also rolling out a significant update to its forecast cone graphics this season. For the first time, hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings extending inland will be shown directly on the cone maps, helping people better understand how far dangerous winds can reach away from the coast. Berg said the change is intended to give residents a more accurate picture of storm impacts beyond beachfront communities.
As for preparedness, Berg stressed that residents should determine now whether they live in an evacuation zone instead of waiting until a storm approaches. He also reminded listeners that evacuation orders are primarily designed to protect people from deadly storm surge flooding, not necessarily to send them hundreds of miles away. “It can just be tens of miles away to a safer location that’s out of that surge zone,” he said.
For more insight on what could shape the 2026 hurricane season, including why forecasters are closely monitoring Gulf conditions already, listen to the full conversation from The Ryan Gorman Show.