Casey DeSantis Leads Byron Donalds in UNF Poll, but Questions Linger Over Methodology
A recent University of North Florida poll has ignited chatter across the Sunshine State, showing Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis narrowly leading Rep. Byron Donalds in a hypothetical 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary matchup. DeSantis garnered 32% support to Donalds’ 29%, a slim margin well within the poll's margin of error. But the results have sparked more scrutiny than celebration.
Political analyst and Southeast Politics publisher Janelle Irwin Taylor joined The Ryan Gorman Show to dissect the poll and highlighted a key flaw: the inclusion of voters who typically skip primary elections. “If people don’t vote in the primary, Casey DeSantis can’t win a primary,” Taylor noted, pointing out that her lead came largely from respondents who skipped the 2024 primary. Among actual primary voters, Donalds holds the edge—a vital distinction in a race that will be decided by those very voters.
The conversation also veered into GOP power dynamics, with Gov. DeSantis bypassing Trump-endorsed Joe Gruters for the CFO appointment in favor of State Sen. Blaise Ingoglia. This political snub could have long-term implications, as Gruters is now being considered for the chairmanship of the Republican National Committee—backed by Trump himself.
As for issues driving the GOP electorate in Florida, property insurance stands out as the top concern, especially among voters over 65. Despite this, DeSantis has focused more on property tax relief, a move Taylor suggests may miss the mark for many Floridians.
Want to know what a Trump-aligned RNC could mean for Ron DeSantis’ 2028 ambitions? Listen to the full episode of The Ryan Gorman Show for more insider analysis.