Fred Onshore, Dumps Rain on Panama City and Points East


CAPE SAN BLAS -- Tropical Storm Fred is onshore.

The center of the storm made landfall about 2:15 Central time near Cape San Blas, about 20 miles west of Apalachicola... where a wind gust of 68 miles per hour was recorded.

Tropical Storm Warnings are discontinued west of the Okaloosa-Walton County line. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect from there to the Steinhatchee River, including Panama City, and a storm surge warning is posted from Indian Pass to Yankeetown.

Panama City and parts of three counties are under a flash flood warning until 8:15 Central Time tonight.

Fred is expected to exit the state and become a depression with a lot of rain early Tuesday.

Here is the advisory from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 29

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021

400 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...FRED MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...HEAVY RAIN AND STORM SURGE THREAT CONTINUES...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.9N 85.3W

ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM NW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning west of the Okaloosa/Walton County line

is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Coast of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend from the

Okaloosa/Walton County line to the Steinhatchee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in

the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please

see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,

available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

Persons located within these areas should take all necessary

actions to protect life and property from rising water and the

potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow

evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was

located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 85.3 West. Fred is

moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this

general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over

the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Fred will move from

western Georgia on Tuesday across the southern Appalachian

Mountains to West Virginia by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.

Rapid weakening is expected, and Fred should become a tropical

depression by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)

from the center. A sustained wind of 49 mph ( 79 km/h) with a gust

to 68 mph (109 km/h) was recently observed at the Apalachicola

Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and

on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with

isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the

western Carolinas... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum

storm totals of 10 inches are expected.

Through Wednesday...

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with

isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts

with a nearby front.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic

States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river

flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the

mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge

Escarpment on Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River...3-5 ft

Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Indian Pass including

Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft

Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to

the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be

accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the

relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary

greatly over short distances. For information specific to your

area, please see products issued by your local National Weather

Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the

Tropical Storm warning area for the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are affecting the coasts of

Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and could

causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight

across parts of the Florida Panhandle, southwest Georgia, and

southeast Alabama. The tornado threat will shift northward into

parts of northeast Georgia, the western Carolinas, and southern

Virginia on Tuesday.

Photo: NHC


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