Hurricane Dorian has maintained it's category 2 strength during the 5pm advisory on Thursday. It's current max sustained winds are 105 miles per hour. The storm is located 45 miles SSE of Myrtle Beach moving NE at 10 miles per hour.
Over the next few days, the NHC expects the storm to slowly weaken. Hurricane hunters have found that air pressures in the eye of the storm are slowly rising which signifies weakening.
The National Hurricane Center continues to emphasize that life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.
Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia through tonight. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these areas, where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is expected.
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Watch from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, and for Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.
The Hurricane Warning from Savannah River to south of Edisto Beach, South Carolina has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.
The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Little River Inlet.
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 78.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to the coast of eastern South Carolina for the next several hours, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later Saturday or Saturday night.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next few days. However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as the center moves near the coasts of South and North Carolina. Dorian is forecast to become a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone by Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles(350 km). NOAA buoy 41004 to the southwest of the eye recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 74 mph (118 km/h).
The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 960 mb (28.35 inches).