The core of Dorian is expected to reach the northwestern Bahamas as a category 4 Hurricane today and will move closer to Florida's east coast late tomorrow through Tuesday. Floridians should prepare for severe weather including destructive wind gusts and heavy rains.
Tropical storm watches have been issued for parts Palm Beach, Martin, Saint Lucie, and Indian River Counties. Fort Lauderdale and parts of Broward have just been issued a watch.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from north of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet.
5AM DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 76.0 West. Dorian is moving
toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward motion
should occur for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn
toward the northwest. On this track, the core of Dorian should be
near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas later today and
tonight, and should move closer to the Florida east coast late
Monday through Tuesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely,
but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the
next few days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas later today, with tropical
storm winds beginning within the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Monday night.
STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:
Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula
through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: Large swells will affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
Photo credit: National Hurricane Center