Operation Storm Watch

Operation Storm Watch

The latest hurricane updates and resources

 

5AM Advisory: Cat 4 Hurricane Dorian Shifts Northward

Category 4 Hurricane Dorian jogged North overnight and two key models are predicting it could remain offshore.

Southern Miami-Dade County including Miami and the Florida Keys are no longer in the cone of uncertainty. Broward and Palm Beach Counties remain in the cone.

The Bahamas are currently bracing for the Category 4 Dorian where a hurricane warning has been issued for the Northwestern Bahamas.

The American models and European models are in agreement of the North turn. Tropical force winds are expected to be felt in South Florida as early as Sunday morning.

President Trump tweeted early this morning, "I am monitoring Hurricane Dorian and receiving frequent briefings and updates. It is important to heed the directions of your State and Local Officials."

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located

near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 72.6 West. Dorian is moving

toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower

west-northwestward to westward motion should begin later today and

continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian

should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and

central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on

Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher

gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible today.

Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week,

Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next

few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles

(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning

area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm

winds beginning tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels

by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of

onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge

will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall

accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches,

isolated 18 inches.

Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores

of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United

States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

Photo Credit: National Hurricane Center


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