Category 4 Hurricane Dorian jogged North overnight and two key models are predicting it could remain offshore.
Southern Miami-Dade County including Miami and the Florida Keys are no longer in the cone of uncertainty. Broward and Palm Beach Counties remain in the cone.
The Bahamas are currently bracing for the Category 4 Dorian where a hurricane warning has been issued for the Northwestern Bahamas.
The American models and European models are in agreement of the North turn. Tropical force winds are expected to be felt in South Florida as early as Sunday morning.
President Trump tweeted early this morning, "I am monitoring Hurricane Dorian and receiving frequent briefings and updates. It is important to heed the directions of your State and Local Officials."
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 72.6 West. Dorian is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower
west-northwestward to westward motion should begin later today and
continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian
should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and
central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on
Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible today.
Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
few days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.
STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:
Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches,
isolated 18 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores
of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United
States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
Photo Credit: National Hurricane Center