Operation Storm Watch

Operation Storm Watch

The latest hurricane updates and resources

 

5AM Advisory: Cat 2 Hurricane Dorian Slows Down & Shifts South

A hurricane watch has been issued for the Northwestern Bahamas and Dorian is forecasted to become a major hurricane later today. It has slowed down and has shifted slightly south overnight.

Landfall is now expected early Monday evening with the eye of the storm headed to Palm Beach and Northern Broward Counties. It's predicted to be a dangerous Category 4 Hurricane.

The American models and European models are coming together in agreement on predictions.

Governor Ron DeSantis is extendeding the state of emergency to include all 67 counties ahead of Hurricane Dorian’s potential Florida landfall.

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DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK:

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located

near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 69.1 West. Dorian is moving

toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is

expected to continue through the day. A slower west-northwestward

to westward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue

through the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the

Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today,

approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over

portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher

gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and

Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane later today. Dorian

is likely to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane while it moves

near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the Florida peninsula

through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the

center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105

miles (165 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from an earlier

Hurricane Hunter mission is 979 mb (28.91 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by

Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday

night or Sunday morning.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce

significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the

northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be

accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall

accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

The northwestern Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast

United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches.

The central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores

of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the

next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening

surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your

local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

Photo credit: National Hurricane Center


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