Tropical Depression Fred continues moving West-Northwesterly along the Northern Cuba Coast.
A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, and for the southwest coast of the Florida Peninsula from Bonita Beach south and east to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay.
Here's the current data:
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the southeastern Bahamas.
The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Guantanamo and Santiago de Cuba.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Granma
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* The southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south and east to Ocean Reef including Florida Bay
Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas tonight and Friday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 75.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the northwest is expected Friday night or
Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba tonight and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and southern Florida on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow strengthening is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it nears the Florida
Keys and south Florida.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).
RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
Over the Turks and Caicos, Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.
Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.
From Friday into Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across the Florida Keys, the southern and central Florida Peninsula, and north towards the Big Bend of Florida, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially exacerbate ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight through Friday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Friday night. Wind gusts to tropical storm force may occur over portions of the southeastern Bahamas tonight.
SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.