What To Watch For As The 2020 Presidential Campaign Unfolds

What To Look For In 2020 Presidential Candidates

The hot takes on every candidate entering the race are coming at us fast and furiously right now. The pros and the cons. Why they can win and why they can’t. While I wish the 2020 presidential campaign wasn't underway just a little over two months removed from the midterms and 640+ days away from Election Day, I’m looking for some very specific things from each candidate who enters the race, as well as from President Trump.

  1. A concise campaign theme. Trump had one in 2016, Hillary didn’t. You’re not going to win if you can't easily sell what you’re all about. In a world of super short attention spans and 280 characters, pithy messaging matters.
  2. Are they addressing the issues that should be the biggest priorities for the country? Forget whether or not the plan is doable. We’ll get to the details, which are usually flushed out further into the campaign. Are they even in the right ballpark on the problems? You can’t fix a problem if you don’t know it exists. Health care and economic mobility are two good places to start. Preparing the country for disruption due to artificial intelligence and automation should be another top item on everyone's agenda.
  3. Are they focused on short-term quick fixes that cater to their base or are they taking the long view? I’ve never been one to view running the country like a business because it’s not a business and it wasn't designed to operate like one. It’s much, much different and therefore handling it successfully takes a far different approach. However, one thing businesses do that we don’t is have a long-term plan. You know who else has a long-term plan? Our adversaries, like China. Google "Made In China 2025" and you'll see what I'm talking about. What’s America's plan for 2025? We’re busy trying to address problems that should have been dealt with years ago while the world keeps speeding up and new issues keep surfacing. We’re always in reaction mode, leaving us unable to get ahead of the game. China is on offense. We’re on defense. You can only play on that side of the ball for so long before you start giving up major points.

The candidates that have a simple campaign theme, know the main issues that will resonate with the majority of the country and have a bold vision for our future will be the ones who have a real shot at winning in 2020. The rest will slowly but surely fall by the wayside as the weeks and months drag on.

2020 Is Not 2016

When analyzing the 2020 presidential race, do not compare it to 2016. You had two very unique circumstances that year: a once-in-lifetime type phenomenon with Donald Trump and an extremely flawed candidate with super high unfavorables in Hillary Clinton. Neither of those dynamics are likely to exist in 2020. I mean, it's possible Democrats nominate someone as unlikeable as Hillary Clinton was viewed, but I wouldn't bet on it. That was historically rare.

One of the biggest advantages Donald Trump had was that he was an outsider, viewed as a businessman and there was a “what the hell, let’s try something different" attitude on the part of a lot of voters fed up with the status quo and politicians. Now he’ll have been in the job for a few years. We know what he can and can’t do. We basically know what to expect from another four years of a Trump presidency. Don't get me wrong, a lot of people will be all for it. But a lot of people , including some who voted for him in 2016, will be looking for something different this time around. That doesn’t mean he can’t win, it just means he’ll have some serious challenges to overcome.

On the Left, you can count on them being highly motivated. Hillary never excited the base. Now maybe their nominee in 2020 doesn't end up being the progressive hero so many Democrats are longing for. Maybe it’ll be someone like more in the middle like a Joe Biden. However, a less exciting candidate will not change the fact they’re gonna be out to take Trump down, much like they were in the midterms. I'd say even more so this time around because Trump will actually be on the ballot.

So again, it'll be a different dynamic. There's also the possibility that Democrats wind up nominating more of a “Democratic Socialist” type, which would be another new variable that could change everything and help Trump in a huge way.

640+ Days Is A Long Time

Finally, it's important to remember that we're a long ways away from the 2020 primary elections and general election. News happens faster than ever these days, so a million different things could alter the presidential race between now and then. What will the Mueller report reveal? Will the economy continue to improve or is a recession coming? What foreign or domestic crisis will take center stage? Anyone who says they know what's going to happen or who does or doesn't have a shot at winning is making an educated guess at best or simply BS'ing you at worst.

Either way, I wish we weren't talking about all of this so soon.


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