Some thoughts on the 2018 midterm elections:
1. Big winner in FL is the GOP and President Trump, at least at the moment. Still think it's a long shot for Nelson/Gillum to overcome their current deficits, but this is FL so 🤷♂️ (Nelson has a better chance than Gillum, but Fried has the best chance of all)
2. If Democrats do pull out the Agriculture Commissioner race, they'll have won one statewide race, flipped two congressional seats and made a few inroads in the Florida Legislature, but nothing game-changing aside from Amendment 4. It was not the blue wave they were hoping for.
3. For Republicans, they (likely) managed to win the two biggest statewide races, FL Gov & FL Sen, plus they won the attorney general race and they hung on to some congressional races that could have been vulnerable if Republican turnout had been depressed.
4. Big win for Trump in FL because the candidate who ran closer to him than just about anyone else, DeSantis, won over a favorite among progressives. Another ally, Scott, will be a reliable vote in the Senate. Finally, GOP control of FL in advance of 2020 is certainly helpful.
5. Nationally, it's more of a mixed bag where everyone got a little something. The president & Republicans likely got a little breathing room in the Senate for confirmations and Democrats are back in the game by retaking the House. It went about as expected.
6. Democrats also made some gains in governor's races and some state legislative races. It wasn't a perfect night for Democrats nationally, but it was solid. Republicans still run more states, but by a bit smaller of a margin than they had before Tuesday night.
7. So what does it all mean? WE'RE A DIVIDED COUNTRY. Neither party has a stranglehold on power going into 2019 and, at the moment, neither party has a lock on the presidency in 2020. Democrats now have some actual points on the board, but the GOP base is solid and engaged. 🇺🇸
- Ryan Gorman