5 AM Monday: Leslie, Kirk & Disturbances No. 1 & No. 2

Miami, Fla. (970 WFLA)-At 500 AM EDT, the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 48.6 West, about 1270 miles west of the Azores.  The storm is moving toward the south near 6 mph and little motion is expected today.  An eastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast tonight and Tuesday.  Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Leslie is forecast to strengthen when it merges with a frontal system in two to three days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

Tropical Depression Kirk is located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 37.4 West, about 950 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, about 1615 miles east of the Windward Islands.

The depression is moving toward the west near 24 mph, and this fast motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  A decrease in forward speed is expected by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph with higher gusts.  Although slight strengthening is forecast during the next few days, it is possible that Kirk could degenerate into a trough of low pressure during the next day or two while it moves quickly across the tropical central Atlantic.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

1. A broad area of low pressure located about midway between Bermuda and the Bahamas continues to produce a limited amount of shower and thunderstorm activity.    Environmental conditions are forecast to become slightly more conducive for development during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward.  

By Tuesday night and Wednesday, upper-level winds are expected to increase, limiting the chances for additional development, while the system moves northward near the southeastern United States coast.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form north of Subtropical Storm Leslie along a cold front over the central Atlantic by Wednesday.  Leslie and the non-tropical low are expected to merge over the central Atlantic, where conditions appear conducive for the low to acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics by the end of the week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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