Ft. Collins, Colo.-(Newsradio 970 WFLA)-Colorado State University hurricane researchers are out with a new Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast. The latest continues to predict an above-average season. They cite a warmer than normal tropical Atlantic as one of the primary reasons for the prediction.
The tropical eastern and central Pacific currently have slightly warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures, but the odds of an El Niño event have diminished considerably from what was anticipated in earlier outlooks.
The tropical Atlantic has been much warmer than normal for the past several months, and is likely to remain so, therefore providing more fuel for developing tropical cyclones. However, the far North Atlantic remains quite cold, and this tends to create atmospheric conditions associated with increased sinking and drying motion. In general though, overall conditions appear to indicate that an above-average Atlantic hurricane season is the most likely scenario.
The forecast team is predicting a total of 11 additional named storms to form before the end of the season. Of those, researchers expect eight to become hurricanes and three to reach major hurricane strength. These forecast numbers do not include Tropical Cyclones Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don and Emily which formed prior to Aug. 1.