The core of Dorian is expected to reach the northwestern Bahamas as a category 4 Hurricane tomorrow. It will move closer to Florida's east coast late Monday
through Tuesday. We can expect severe weather and heavy rains.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Andros Island.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 74.7 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward
motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by a
gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of Dorian
should be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on
Sunday, and move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday
through Tuesday.
Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dorian remains a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
during the next few days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 941 mb (27.79 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area on Monday.
STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:
Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.