The core of Dorian is expected to reach the northwestern Bahamas as a category 4 Hurricane tomorrow. It will move closer to Florida's east coast late Monday
through Tuesday. We can expect severe weather and heavy rains.
Tropical storm watches have been issued for Palm Beach, Martin, Saint Lucie, and Indian River Counties.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 75.1 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward
motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by
a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of
Dorian should be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas
on Sunday, and move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday
through Tuesday.
Data from NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with
higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
during the next few days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 940 mb (27.76 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning overnight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area on Monday.
STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:
Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States from central
Florida northward through the Carolinas...4 to 8 inches, isolated
12 inches.
Central Bahamas and South Florida...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: Large swells will affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.