A hurricane watch has been issued for the Northwestern Bahamas and Dorian is forecasted to become a major Category 3 hurricane later today. It slowed down and has shifted slightly south overnight. The majority of the state of Florida remains in the cone.
Landfall is now expected late Monday evening with the eye of the storm headed to Palm Beach and Northern Broward Counties. It's predicted to be a dangerous Category 4 Hurricane.
The American models and European models are coming together in agreement on predictions.
Governor Ron DeSantis is extendeding the state of emergency to include all 67 counties ahead of Hurricane Dorian’s potential Florida landfall.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 69.4 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through today. A slower west-northwestward
to westward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through
the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic
well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, approach
the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of
the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175
km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next
few days, and Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane later
today. Dorian is likely to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane
while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the
Florida peninsula through the weekend.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
The minimum central pressure just reported by the Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 972 mb (28.70 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday
night or Sunday morning.
STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast,the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:
Northwestern Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast
United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores
of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.